Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
