Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
